"He is before all things, and in Him all things hold together." ~ Colossians 1:17

Thursday 19 August 2010

Re: Economic Growth - Short Term v Long Term

Another insightful difference between the two schools is their chosen time frame of study. Neoclassical economists are concerned with long-term equilibria. Although deviations may occur in the short-term, the assumptions of rational actors, perfect information and efficient markets will act to counteract any slumps or booms. In the long-run, the only thing that affects growth is supply.

Keynes, on the other hand, felt that aggregate demand could be insufficient (leaving 'spare capacity' in the economy) or excessive (leading to unnecessary inflation), thus justifying government intervention to preserve full employment. In other words, prices would not adjust to the 'natural rate of output' (and thus employment) envisaged by the Milton Friedmans of the world (this links back to assumptions of risk versus uncertainty). For Keynes, there was no ontologically distinct 'long-term equilibrium' in the economy - multiple equilibria could be occupied in the short-run depending on the unravelling of unforseeable events and unpredictable 'animal spirits'.

The result of this disagreement is an inconsistency in emphasis regarding the time frame to be viewed. Ironically, however, Keynes always had some definite time horizon when economic growth would no longer be necessary (the age of abundance) and a social system could be employed, whereas Neoclassicals, whose methodology is far more long-term focused, had no long-term objective. In other words, Keynes was philosophically long-term but economically short-term, and the Neoclassicals were vice versa. Keynes lived in the short-term to achieve a long-term goal; the Neoclassicals lived in the long-term to achieve short-term goals.

What does the Word tell us on this matter? Paul stresses to his various churches that they should seek eternal things that moth and rust do not destroy. We should have an eternal perspective, thus giving us an appropriate understanding of our current situation. Thus, our methodology should be very much that of the Neoclassicists - we know what the final outcome will be, and thus can plan accordingly. There is a long-term equlibrium of Heaven, and so our actions should reflect that.

However, Christ also tells us not to worry about tommorow, for tommorow has enough worries of its own. In this regard, we should be living for the moment, rather than hoarding our manna for the next day. God will provide for us in the short-term. Therefore, unlike the Neoclassicists, and like Keynes, we should not have short-term objectives (such as wealth maximisation). Our philosophy should also be long-term.

The crux of the argument is that we actually live in two time-frames, one finite and one infinite. If anything, our long-term perspective of Heaven should affect our short-term behaviour in a way that causes us to treasure every moment and live as if it were our last. Keynes saw time as finite and discontinuous, and thus constrained himself to living in the present, even though is claimed goal was long-term. Neoclassicists saw time as infinite and continuous, and thus constrained themselves to living in the future, even though their claimed goal was short-term.

We should thus fuse the two strands of thinking. Our treasure is eternal, and so we should not seek to maximise our utility during our finite time frame. However, we should not worry, as Keynes did, about short-term issues that will even out over time. I think that this is what it means for Christ to give us 'life, and life abundantly'. To enter into the Kingdom of God NOW, whilst on Earth (our finite time frame) is only possible if we are adopting this way of living. It is not natural - usually we either micromanage our life to achieve some ambition, or we are blaze about our present because we have future security. As Christians, we have the gift of eternal life, and so should try to maximise THAT life. Often, that means giving up things of the world. As the Neoclassicists studied, we can achieve that long-term equlibrium RIGHT NOW, rather than waiting for 'the age of abundance'. However, as Keynes understood, our life on Earth is frought with difficulties, and we should see these in light of what are actually trying to achieve. Seek first His Kingdom, and all these things will be added to you.

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